Sunday 10 January 2010

AKcc turns a flush

This is a hand that came up a couple of days ago. I'd been having a good session so far and i think the turn is an interesting street on this hand.

My HUD is still faulty, and i've been doing well without it, but as a consequence i had no reads on this guy.

***** Hand History for Game 37861554559 ***** (Poker Stars)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, January 08, 06:41:36 ET 2010
Table Tilia III (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Beldar69 ( $89.05 USD )
Seat 2: Beatrism ( $134.05 USD )
Seat 3: rei1978 ( $116.15 USD )
Seat 4: ASMoney ( $120.30 USD )
Seat 5: Nanni2407 ( $23.00 USD )
Seat 6: Eggpie ( $109.50 USD )
Seat 7: Pawippy19 ( $14.80 USD )
Seat 8: BuSiNeSS21 ( $18.50 USD )
Seat 9: MaxDyak ( $19.00 USD )
MaxDyak posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Beldar69 posts big blind [$1.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Eggpie [ Kc Ac ]
Beatrism calls [$1.00 USD]
rei1978 calls [$1.00 USD]
ASMoney folds
Nanni2407 folds
Eggpie raises [$6.00 USD]
Pawippy19 folds
BuSiNeSS21 folds
MaxDyak folds
Beldar69 folds
Beatrism calls [$5.00 USD]
rei1978 calls [$5.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 7c, 9s ]
Beatrism checks
rei1978 checks
Eggpie bets [$15.00 USD]
Beatrism folds
rei1978 calls [$15.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ]
rei1978 checks


The pot is $18 on the flop, and i have overs with the nut flush draw so naturally i cbet it in position.

The guy who limp called pre, just called then i hit my flush on the turn - but it paired the board. I have $85 behind, so naturally there will be some more betting. I thought about his range and i think i'm ahead of that {flushes, random pairs 88/1010 etc, sets which are now FHs, A7, A9 and random gunshots} - so i bet $40 to look like i was scared of a 4th club, and this happened:


Eggpie bets [$40.00 USD]
rei1978 raises [$95.15 USD]
Eggpie calls [$48.50 USD]
rei1978 wins $6.65 USD
** Dealing River ** [ Qd ]
rei1978 shows [7d, 7h ]
Eggpie shows [Kc, Ac ]
rei1978 wins $223.50 USD from main pot

If we go back to the turn, i should have thought about his CALLING range, not his range for getting to the turn. Aside from something like A7 hiting a 7 on the river, pretty much all that folds to a bet can't end up beating me anyway (or has at most 2 outs).

Assuming his calling range is:
Flushes
The odd trip 9
Sets - which are now full hosues

Its surely a WA/WB situation, with a slight tendancy to limit the amount of trip 9s and flushes he has because he might have led out with both of these if he was scared about letting me draw to a 4th club (note: if he had a flush, it will be Q high at best). So is my best play to check?
Within his calling range, sets make up a fair proportion so maybe i should check and call a river bet (or bet if checked to me).
The upside is that i may get value from his range that may not call the turn bet and also i don't get stacked when he has a FH.
The downside is that i now don't stack lower flushes and give him chance to boat up for free.

Initially i thought it was a clear bet/call in the heat of the moment, but after thinking about his calling range maybe its not so clear cut.

Thoughts appreciated please!

Steve

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I like the thought process here and it is something I should think about much more than I do.